5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:55:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:55:13 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 201755
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jerry, located about a hundred miles northeast of the Leeward
Islands.
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has
increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head
quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will
move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is
possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by
early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become
a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the
region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent
significant development of this system while it moves slowly
west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could
cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 20 the center of Jerry was located near 19.6, -62.0 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019000 WTNT35 KNHC 202052 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 ...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BARBUDA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn northward on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could re-strengthen early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019000 WTNT25 KNHC 202052 TCMAT5 HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 62.0W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 62.0W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 61.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 63.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N 68.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 62.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019000 WTNT45 KNHC 202053 TCDAT5 Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present in the southwest quadrant. Overall the degradation in satellite seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the last aircraft data from several hours ago. The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane tonight. Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at 16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this advisory. Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next day or so, and further weakening is expected. While the shear might not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are possible there tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.6N 62.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.5N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.8N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 23.2N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 24.5N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 27.0N 68.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 30.0N 67.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 33.5N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
000
FONT15 KNHC 202053
PWSAT5
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 38(56)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:55:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:55:13 GMT