Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 271247
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
850 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha located near the coast of South Carolina.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2020. Until then, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

Public Advisories on Bertha are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Bertha are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Summary for Tropical Depression Bertha (AT2/AL022020)

...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
 As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed May 27
 the center of Bertha was located near 34.4, -80.3
 with movement NNW at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

Tropical Depression Bertha Public Advisory Number 3

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272033
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Bertha Advisory Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020
 
...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bertha
was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 80.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph       
(24 km/h).  A turn toward the north at a faster forward speed is 
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on 
Thursday.  On the forecast track, Bertha will move across northern
South Carolina this evening and into central North Carolina and 
southwestern Virginia later tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) 
with higher gusts, mainly along the coast to the east of the 
center.  Additional weakening is expected, and Bertha is forecast 
to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across northeastern
South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina
and southwest Virginia.  Given very saturated antecedent 
conditions, this rainfall may produce life threatening flash
flooding, aggravate and prolong ongoing river flooding, and produce
rapid out of bank rises on smaller rivers.
 
WIND:  Gusty winds will continue over portions of eastern South
Carolina this evening.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Future information on this system can be 
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center 
beginning at 11 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header 
WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Tropical Depression Bertha Forecast Advisory Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 272033
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022020
2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  80.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  80.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N  80.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N  80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 41.7N  79.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N  80.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER 
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER 
WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. 
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Tropical Depression Bertha Forecast Discussion Number 3

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 272034
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Bertha Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022020
500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020
 
Surface observations and WSR-88D radar data indicate that the 
center of Bertha continues to move farther inland across central 
and northern South Carolina.  Based on surface observations, the 
maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 kt, with these 
winds mainly along the coastal areas to the east of the center.  
Additional weakening is expected as the system moves farther 
inland, with Bertha forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure 
area on Thursday, followed by dissipation on Thursday night.

The initial motion is 340/13.  The cyclone is located between the 
subtropical ridge to the east and a large deep-layer low pressure 
area over the lower Mississippi River valley.  These features 
should steer the system and its associated rainfall generally 
northward during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the 
north-northeast before dissipation between 24-36 h.  The new 
forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the previous track 
based mainly on the initial location and motion.

This is the last advisory on Bertha issued by the National 
Hurricane Center.  Future information on this system can be found in 
Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning 
at 11 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, 
and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across
portions of northeastern South Carolina into west central to
far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia.  Ongoing river
flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 34.4N  80.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  28/0600Z 37.0N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  28/1800Z 41.7N  79.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Tropical Depression Bertha Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020


000
FONT12 KNHC 272034
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022020               
2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GREENSBORO NC  34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Tropical Depression Bertha Graphics


Tropical Depression Bertha 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 20:34:59 GMT

Tropical Depression Bertha 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 21:23:41 GMT

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at  158 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020