Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 041733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is
producing widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. A broad area
of low pressure is expected to develop from this system over the
southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two, and additional subsequent development is possible while the low
moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical
depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of
next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that
is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week.
Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula late this weekend into
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Monday or Tuesday. Some development of this system is
possible thereafter as it moves westward or west-northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Hurricane Kirk (AT2/AL122024)

...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4
 the center of Kirk was located near 23.0, -48.9
 with movement NW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 939 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 140 mph.

Hurricane Kirk Public Advisory Number 21

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 041431
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
 
...KIRK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK COULD REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY
SUNDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 48.9W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1655 MI...2665 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located 
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 48.9 West. Kirk is moving toward 
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is 
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north and 
north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the 
weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Small intensity fluctuations are possible
today and tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and 
continue through early next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are
expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles on Saturday, the east coast of the United States,
Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sunday, and the Azores on
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 041431
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  48.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  939 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  80SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  48.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  48.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 24.4N  49.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N  50.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.3N  49.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 65NE  55SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.8N  48.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 65NE  65SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 37.6N  44.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 40.9N  39.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW  80NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 190SW 170NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 45.3N  25.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW  70NW.
34 KT...230NE 260SE 210SW 180NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 48.0N   9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW  30NW.
34 KT...280NE 290SE 240SW 240NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  48.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 

Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 041432
TCDAT2
 
Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024

The satellite appearance of Kirk is a little less impressive than 
it was six hours ago, as the eye has become somewhat cloud-filled 
and the convective cloud tops have warmed a little.  Recent 
microwave imagery suggests that the hurricane may be starting an 
eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer convective band wrapped 
about three-quarters of the way around the eyewall.  The various 
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates have trended 
downward, and based on a combination of these estimates the initial 
intensity is reduced to 120 kt.  The wind radii have been tweaked 
based on a recent ASCAT overpass.

The initial motion is 315/10.  Kirk is currently approaching a large 
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low centered 
near 33N 60W.  During the next 48-60 h, the hurricane should recurve 
through this break and accelerate northeastward into the 
mid-latitude westerlies.   After that time, the cyclone should move 
quickly east-northeastward across the northern and northeastern 
Atlantic.  There has been little change in the track guidance since 
the previous advisory, and the new forecast track has only minor 
adjustments from the previous track.

Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 h due to the 
expected eyewall replacement cycle.  After that, Kirk should 
encounter increasing southwesterly shear and move over cooler sea 
surface temperatures, which should cause a steady weakening.  
Extratropical transition is likely to begin between 60-72 h and be 
complete by 96 h, with Kirk becoming a strong extratropical cyclone 
over the northeastern Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast follows 
the general trends of the intensity guidance, and is closest to the 
GFS model during the extratropical stage.
 
Even though Kirk is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic, its
strong intensity and increasing size will result in large ocean
swells that will propagate far away from the hurricane. These swells
will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents
across the Leeward Islands beginning later today, Bermuda and the
Greater Antilles by Saturday, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic
Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For
more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local
weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 23.0N  48.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 24.4N  49.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 27.0N  50.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 30.3N  49.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 33.8N  48.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 37.6N  44.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 40.9N  39.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 45.3N  25.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1200Z 48.0N   9.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Hurricane Kirk Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024


000
FONT12 KNHC 041431
PWSAT2
                                                                    
HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122024               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120   
KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SANTA CRUZ AZO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Hurricane Kirk Graphics


Hurricane Kirk 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:36:26 GMT

Hurricane Kirk 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 15:23:08 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132024)

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
 As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 4
 the center of Leslie was located near 10.0, -33.0
 with movement WNW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 996 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 041440
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
 
...LESLIE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 33.0W
ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was 
located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 33.0 West. Leslie is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward 
the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn 
toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sunday 
into Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie 
is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 041440
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N  33.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N  33.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.9N  32.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 10.3N  34.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 10.8N  35.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.4N  36.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.4N  37.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N  39.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N  40.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N  44.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.9N  47.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N  33.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 

Tropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 041441
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132024
1100 AM AST Fri Oct 04 2024
 
A recent SSMIS microwave pass depicted that Leslie is continuing to
become better organized and is trying to develop an inner core.
Burst of deep convection have continued to develop mainly on the
southern semi-circle as the system is still battling some deep-layer
northeasterly wind shear. Given the improved convective pattern the
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased this cycle with
a data-T 3.5/55 kt, from both TAFB and SAB. Using these estimates
and the improving structure, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt
for this advisory.
 
Leslie is moving slowly westward at 280/5 kt, along the southern
periphery of the subtropical ridge.  The ridge will continue to
steer Leslie, with a gradual turn west-northwestward then
northwestward as it rounds the ridge. Leslie should continue
north-westward with a slight increase in forward speed through the
end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very near the
previous forecast track, which lies between the HCCA HFIP-corrected
consensus and simple consensus aids.
 
Northeasterly shear should begin to decrease later today as
Hurricane Kirk continues to pull further away from the system.
Strengthening is then forecast over the next 2-3 days with warm sea
surface temperatures, upper-level divergence and low deep-layer
shear. The intensity guidance, especially the peak has come down
this cycle, and that is a combination of a few factors. In about 3
days, Leslie is forecast to move over the cold wake of Kirk, and
encounter increasing dry air, mid-level shear, and the upper-level
pattern also become a little less diffluent. This should cause the
intensity of Leslie to plateau through the end of the forecast
period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends and is
slightly lower than the previous forecast, but lies near the higher
end of the intensity guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 10.0N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 10.3N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 10.8N  35.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 11.4N  36.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 12.4N  37.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 13.8N  39.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 15.3N  40.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 18.2N  44.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 20.9N  47.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 

Tropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024


920 
FONT13 KNHC 041440
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132024               
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2024                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY                                                    

Tropical Storm Leslie Graphics


Tropical Storm Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 14:42:46 GMT

Tropical Storm Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Oct 2024 15:29:06 GMT