Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 201755
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jerry, located about a hundred miles northeast of the Leeward
Islands.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has
increased during the past 24 hours. The wave is expected to head
quickly westward at about 20 mph during the next few days and will
move across the Windward Islands this weekend. Some development is
possible during that time and a tropical depression could form by
early next week. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development next week once the wave moves over the
eastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located just south of Haiti has become
a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is still disorganized, and pressures in the
region are rising. Strong upper-level winds will likely prevent
significant development of this system while it moves slowly
west-northwestward for the next few days. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola,
Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend. These heavy rains could
cause flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 20
 the center of Jerry was located near 19.6, -62.0
 with movement WNW at 18 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 991 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 202052
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY STILL POSES A FLOODING RISK IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jerry was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 62.0 West. Jerry is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h).  On the forecast
track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward
Islands later today, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday, be
well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday and turn
northward on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is forecast overnight, but Jerry could
re-strengthen early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall,
with isolated maximum totals of 4 to 6 inches from Barbuda northwest
across St. Maarten, Anguilla, and Anegada. This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.

Jerry is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2
inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas this evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting portions of the
northern Leeward Islands. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 202052
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  62.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  62.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  61.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N  63.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.8N  65.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.2N  67.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.5N  68.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N  68.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 30.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  62.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 202053
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has re-developed
near and northeast of the center, with a new rainband also present
in the southwest quadrant.  Overall the degradation in satellite
seen this morning has stopped, and that trend basically matches the
last aircraft data from several hours ago.  The initial wind speed
is set to 70 kt on this advisory, and another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane
tonight.

Jerry has been moving a little faster today, west-northwestward at
16 kt, perhaps due to the system becoming a little shallower and
feeling the faster low-level flow. There are no significant track
changes to the NHC forecast this afternoon. The hurricane's motion
should gradually bend to the right and slow down during the next few
days while the cyclone is steered around the western flank of a
weakening subtropical ridge. At longer range, a mid-latitude trough
will likely turn the hurricane northward and northeastward, but how
quickly that occurs is an open question. The guidance spread has
only increased this afternoon, although the model consensus hasn't
changed much, so the NHC forecast will hold the course on this
advisory.

Northwesterly shear is forecast to persist near Jerry for the next
day or so, and further weakening is expected.  While the shear might
not change much by late this weekend, a combination of very warm
water and a more moist mid-level environment could sustain the
cyclone and even allow some strengthening afterward. The long-range
intensity forecast depends on the mid-latitude trough and whether it
is a trough that tends to shear the cyclone, or whether it gives
Jerry a baroclinic kick to increase the winds. I'm hesitant to
change anything at this point given the huge track spread, so the
latest intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous
one, near or slightly above the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to move north of the
northern Leeward Islands, heavy rainfall and flash floods are
possible there tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 19.6N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 20.5N  63.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 21.8N  65.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 23.2N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 24.5N  68.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 27.0N  68.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 30.0N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 33.5N  63.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake


Hurricane Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 202053
PWSAT5
                                                                    
HURRICANE JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)  38(56)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Jerry Graphics


Hurricane Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:55:13 GMT

Hurricane Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Sep 2019 20:55:13 GMT