5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:37:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:37:28 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 131717
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lorenzo, located in the central tropical Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Lorenzo are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
...LORENZO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 13 the center of Lorenzo was located near 15.2, -41.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025141 WTNT32 KNHC 132035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025 ...LORENZO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 41.7W ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 41.7 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected through Tuesday, followed by a turn to the north Tuesday night. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, but some gradual intensification is possible later in the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025000 WTNT22 KNHC 132034 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025 2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 41.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 0SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 150SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 41.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025001 WTNT42 KNHC 132035 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 PM AST Mon Oct 13 2025 A mid- to upper-level low to the west of Lorenzo is producing strong west-southwesterly shear, causing the low-level center to be mostly exposed to the west of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. The scatterometer data is also the basis for the initial 34-kt wind radii, which shows the tropical-storm-force winds mostly limited to the eastern half of the storm. Lorenzo is moving northwestward at 10 kt, and that motion should continue for about another day. However, by late Tuesday, a turn to the north is forecast as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The storm is then expected to turn northeastward later in the week as a large-scale mid- to upper-level trough approaches from the west. Most of the models show this trough cutting off, causing Lorenzo to slow down and turn eastward or southeastward over the weekend. The NHC track forecast is generally similar to the previous one and on the right side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with HCCA. Regardless of the details, Lorenzo is not expected to be near land during the next several days. The strong shear over Lorenzo is likely to let up during the next few days, but the models also show some dry air entraining into the circulation. In fact, some of the global models show Lorenzo remaining lopsided and even opening up into a trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows some strengthening, but this is of low confidence as there is some possibility that Lorenzo succumbs to the unfavorable environmental conditions. This prediction is a little lower than the previous one, but remains near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.2N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.8N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 20.0N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.6N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 25.3N 41.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 28.2N 38.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 31.4N 31.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 30.1N 29.2W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025 000
FONT12 KNHC 132035
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122025
2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:37:27 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Oct 2025 20:37:28 GMT