Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Jul 2026 21:22:34 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 192344
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Two, located over the northeastern Gulf of America.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 the center of Two was located near 27.7, -85.0 with movement at mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026000 WTNT32 KNHC 192344 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 85.0W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is nearly stationary. A very slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday. The minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 42036 is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Friday along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026000 WTNT22 KNHC 192043 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 85.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026000 WTNT42 KNHC 192044 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation remains well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. An ASCAT pass from around 15Z showed peak winds of around 25 kt, and data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show winds of about that same value. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. The depression remains rather large and somewhat diffuse, with the associated shower activity covering much of the eastern Gulf. The system has barely moved today. In fact, it has drifted southeastward over the past few hours. This slow motion is due to very weak steering currents, with the depression currently caught between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. Most of the models show the cyclone drifting northwestward over the next couple of days, and its outer bands could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday. A turn to the west or west-northwest is likely on Tuesday as the ridge over the U.S. builds eastward and becomes the primary steering feature. That motion should take the system along or just offshore of the northern Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a bit to the south, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The depression is expected to only slowly strengthen, especially in the short term, due to its sprawling structure, nearby dry air, and northeasterly vertical wind shear. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday when it is offshore of the Florida Panhandle. The shear could briefly let up during the middle of the week, and if the system is still over water at that time, it could strengthen some more. There remains a large spread in the model solutions that range from the system remaining a tropical depression to even becoming a hurricane. Given the mixed environmental conditions and some expected land interaction, the NHC intensity forecast lies between those solutions, but leans closer to the upper end of the guidance. However, it is worth emphasizing that the intensity forecast is of low confidence given the uncertainty of how much land the system will interact with. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect, 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 27.5N 85.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 27.9N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 28.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 28.5N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 28.9N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0600Z 29.2N 87.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 29.4N 88.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1800Z 29.2N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1800Z 29.3N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026 000
FONT12 KNHC 192044
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
2100 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19)
GFAM 290N 850W 34 3 11(14) 12(26) 3(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33)
GFAM 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
GFAM 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 15(31) 15(46) 1(47) X(47)
GFAM 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GFAM 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18)
GFAM 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 14(16) 8(24) 1(25)
GFAM 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
GFAM 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12)
HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13)
GFAM 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24)
GFAM 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
GFAM 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
GFAM 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19)
GFAM 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GFAM 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15)
GFAM 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GFAM 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
GFAM 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 19 Jul 2026 21:22:34 GMT
Issued at 459 PM EDT
Issued at 414 PM CDT