5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:57:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:23:38 GMT
840
ABNT20 KNHC 021138 CCA
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Corrected typo in paragraph for the eastern Caribbean Sea system
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Colin, located near the South Carolina coast and on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located inland near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.
Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development as the system moves west-northwestward during the next
few days across the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
...BONNIE NOW OVER LAKE NICARAGUA... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 2 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.3, -85.1 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022000 WTNT32 KNHC 020857 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...BONNIE NOW OVER LAKE NICARAGUA... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 85.1W ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM NE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua * Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 6 to 12 hours. Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected later today. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday. On the forecast track, Bonnie will move across Lake Nicaragua during the next several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this morning. Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges over the eastern Pacific later today and should continue through Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected: Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. The intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT will be issued under Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC. The next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT will be issued as an Eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4 and WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC. $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022000 WTNT22 KNHC 020856 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA * CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 85.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 85.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER WTPZ24 KNHC. $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022000 WTNT42 KNHC 020858 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Overall, Bonnie's structure is holding together quite well as the storm moves across Central America. While the coldest cloud tops near the center have warmed somewhat, radar from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes shows a healthy reflectivity structure. In fact, after the last center fix the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made indicated a formative eyewall was developing with Bonnie, a similar signature is now also currently observed with Bonnie over Lake Nicaragua. Assuming there has been some weakening of the wind field since Bonnie began moving over land, the intensity is being reduced to an uncertain 35 kt for this advisory. Bonnie was moving just north of due west from the recon fixes last night, and the initial motion has been maintained at 275/14 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge poleward of Bonnie should continue to steer the cyclone west to west-northwestward for the majority of the forecast period after it moves offshore. This track continues to take Bonnie roughly parallel to the southern coast of Central America and Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement this cycle, and only slight changes to the forecast track were made, mostly a somewhat faster motion at the end of the forecast period. While the relatively small size of the tropical cyclone is currently forecast to keep the highest winds offshore, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. So far Bonnie's structure does not appear to be that adversely affected by its ongoing land interaction crossing Central America, perhaps because it is traversing a relatively flat gap across Lake Nicaragua, in between higher terrain to its north or south. However, one thorn in the system's short-term intensity forecast is that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) just offshore Nicaragua are not all that warm, only between 26-27 C with a very shallow depth of these marginally warm waters for the first 24 h or so. For this reason, only slow intensification is forecasted early on, which is under the majority of the guidance in this time frame. Afterwards, SSTs markedly warm to above 28 C, and vertical wind shear is expected to remain only light to moderate. Thus, a faster rate of intensification is anticipated after 36 h, and Bonnie is still forecast to become a hurricane in about three days. The latest intensity forecast has been adjusted downward in the short-term, but still peaks the storm as a 75-kt hurricane at the end of the forecast period. It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific later today. The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued under the same Atlantic header as before. Product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from AL022022 to EP042022. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 11.3N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA 12H 02/1800Z 11.3N 87.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN 24H 03/0600Z 11.5N 89.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 12.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 13.0N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 13.9N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
000
FONT12 KNHC 020857
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:57:56 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:23:38 GMT
...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 the center of Colin was located near 33.2, -79.5 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022000 WTNT33 KNHC 020853 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was located just inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 79.5 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western Atlantic Ocean late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday. RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches, is expected. This rainfall may result in localized areas of flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022996 WTNT23 KNHC 020851 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 79.5W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 79.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W...OVER PAMLICO SOUND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N 79.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022000 WTNT43 KNHC 020854 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022 A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the northeast of Charleston. Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids. Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western Atlantic soon after 48 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday. 2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND 48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
000
FONT13 KNHC 020853
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
RALEIGH NC 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ROCKY MT NC 34 2 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 13(15) 18(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
FAYETTEVILLE 34 8 7(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
CHERRY PT NC 34 6 27(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW RIVER NC 34 6 29(35) 8(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 33(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SURF CITY NC 34 27 24(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
SURF CITY NC 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
WILMINGTON NC 34 28 18(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
WILMINGTON NC 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BALD HEAD ISL 34 49 10(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FLORENCE SC 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
COLUMBIA SC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LITTLE RIVER 34 55 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
LITTLE RIVER 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 58 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
MYRTLE BEACH 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CHARLESTON SC 34 17 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:55:12 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:30:23 GMT
Issued at 529 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
Issued at 724 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
