5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 20:34:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 21:23:41 GMT
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271247
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
850 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bertha located near the coast of South Carolina.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
June 1, 2020. Until then, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as conditions warrant.
&&
Public Advisories on Bertha are issued under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2. Forecast/Advisories on Bertha are
issued under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMAT2.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed May 27 the center of Bertha was located near 34.4, -80.3 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020000 WTNT32 KNHC 272033 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Bertha Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 ...CENTER OF BERTHA MOVING FARTHER INLAND... ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.4N 80.3W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ENE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Bertha was located near latitude 34.4 North, longitude 80.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the north at a faster forward speed is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move across northern South Carolina this evening and into central North Carolina and southwestern Virginia later tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly along the coast to the east of the center. Additional weakening is expected, and Bertha is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across northeastern South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina and southwest Virginia. Given very saturated antecedent conditions, this rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding, aggravate and prolong ongoing river flooding, and produce rapid out of bank rises on smaller rivers. WIND: Gusty winds will continue over portions of eastern South Carolina this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020000 WTNT22 KNHC 272033 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020 2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 80.3W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 80.3W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 80.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 41.7N 79.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 80.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020000 WTNT42 KNHC 272034 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Bertha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 500 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020 Surface observations and WSR-88D radar data indicate that the center of Bertha continues to move farther inland across central and northern South Carolina. Based on surface observations, the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 25 kt, with these winds mainly along the coastal areas to the east of the center. Additional weakening is expected as the system moves farther inland, with Bertha forecast to decay to a remnant low pressure area on Thursday, followed by dissipation on Thursday night. The initial motion is 340/13. The cyclone is located between the subtropical ridge to the east and a large deep-layer low pressure area over the lower Mississippi River valley. These features should steer the system and its associated rainfall generally northward during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast before dissipation between 24-36 h. The new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the previous track based mainly on the initial location and motion. This is the last advisory on Bertha issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Bertha may produce life-threatening flash flooding across portions of northeastern South Carolina into west central to far southeast North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. Ongoing river flooding will be aggravated and recessions prolonged in the region. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 34.4N 80.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/0600Z 37.0N 80.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1800Z 41.7N 79.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Issued at 2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020
000
FONT12 KNHC 272034
PWSAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022020
2100 UTC WED MAY 27 2020
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GREENSBORO NC 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 20:34:59 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 27 May 2020 21:23:41 GMT
Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed May 27 2020