Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


840
ABNT20 KNHC 021138 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Corrected typo in paragraph for the eastern Caribbean Sea system

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Colin, located near the South Carolina coast and on Tropical
Storm Bonnie, located inland near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the Windward Islands and eastern
Caribbean Sea. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant
development as the system moves west-northwestward during the next
few days across the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi


Summary for Tropical Storm Bonnie (AT2/AL022022)

...BONNIE NOW OVER LAKE NICARAGUA... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 2
 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.3, -85.1
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Public Advisory Number 19

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 020857
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...BONNIE NOW OVER LAKE NICARAGUA...
...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA THROUGH THE DAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 85.1W
ABOUT 45 MI...85 KM NE OF LIBERIA COSTA RICA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
6 to 12 hours.
 
Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and
southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was 
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 85.1 West. Bonnie is 
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a continued 
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected 
later today.  A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin 
tonight or on Sunday and continue into Tuesday.  On the forecast 
track, Bonnie will move across Lake Nicaragua during the next 
several hours and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later this 
morning.  Bonnie will then move offshore of but parallel to the 
coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico today through 
Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast after Bonnie emerges
over the eastern Pacific later today and should continue through 
Tuesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Bonnie will continue to produce heavy rain across portions
of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through today. The following storm total
rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Tropical
Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica, and these will continue to spread westward to the
Pacific coast within the warning areas during the next few hours.
 
STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to subside along the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua later this morning.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

The intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT will be issued under 
Atlantic AWIPS header MIATCPAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

The next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT will be issued as an 
Eastern North Pacific Public Advisory under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4 
and WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 19

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 020856
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
* CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
6 TO 12 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  85.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  85.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N  84.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.3N  87.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.5N  89.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N  91.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.0N  95.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.9N  98.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N  85.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 02/1200Z
 
FUTURE INFORMATION ON BONNIE CAN BE FOUND IN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP4...WMO HEADER 
WTPZ24 KNHC.
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
 
 

Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 19

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 020858
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
Overall, Bonnie's structure is holding together quite well as the 
storm moves across Central America. While the coldest cloud tops 
near the center have warmed somewhat, radar from the Nicaraguan 
Weather Service in Las Nubes shows a healthy reflectivity structure. 
In fact, after the last center fix the Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft made indicated a formative eyewall was developing 
with Bonnie, a similar signature is now also currently observed with 
Bonnie over Lake Nicaragua. Assuming there has been some weakening 
of the wind field since Bonnie began moving over land, the 
intensity is being reduced to an uncertain 35 kt for this advisory.
 
Bonnie was moving just north of due west from the recon fixes last 
night, and the initial motion has been maintained at 275/14 kt. A 
strong deep-layer ridge poleward of Bonnie should continue to steer 
the cyclone west to west-northwestward for the majority of the 
forecast period after it moves offshore. This track continues to 
take Bonnie roughly parallel to the southern coast of Central 
America and Mexico. The track guidance remains in good agreement 
this cycle, and only slight changes to the forecast track were made, 
mostly a somewhat faster motion at the end of the forecast period. 
While the relatively small size of the tropical cyclone is currently 
forecast to keep the highest winds offshore, interests in coastal El 
Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to 
monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track 
adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of 
this coastline.
 
So far Bonnie's structure does not appear to be that adversely 
affected by its ongoing land interaction crossing Central America, 
perhaps because it is traversing a relatively flat gap across Lake 
Nicaragua, in between higher terrain to its north or south. However, 
one thorn in the system's short-term intensity forecast is that sea 
surface temperatures (SSTs) just offshore Nicaragua are not all that 
warm, only between 26-27 C with a very shallow depth of these 
marginally warm waters for the first 24 h or so. For this reason, 
only slow intensification is forecasted early on, which is under the 
majority of the guidance in this time frame. Afterwards, SSTs 
markedly warm to above 28 C, and vertical wind shear is expected to 
remain only light to moderate. Thus, a faster rate of 
intensification is anticipated after 36 h, and Bonnie is still 
forecast to become a hurricane in about three days. The latest 
intensity forecast has been adjusted downward in the short-term, but 
still peaks the storm as a 75-kt hurricane at the end of the 
forecast period.

It is worth mentioning that Bonnie's low-level circulation is 
expected to survive its passage across Central America, similar to 
that of Hurricane Otto back in 2016. Thus, the system is expected to 
retain its name even after it moves into the far eastern Pacific 
later today.  The intermediate advisory at 1200 UTC will be issued 
under the same Atlantic header as before.  Product headers will 
change to eastern Pacific headers beginning with the next complete 
advisory at 1500 UTC, with the ATCF identifier changing from 
AL022022 to EP042022.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of Nicaragua and
Costa Rica today. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are 
expected.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean
coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the Tropical Storm Warning
areas for the next several hours, and along the Pacific coasts of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 11.3N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER LAKE NICARAGUA
 12H  02/1800Z 11.3N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 24H  03/0600Z 11.5N  89.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 12.0N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 13.0N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  04/1800Z 13.9N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 16.4N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 

Tropical Storm Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022


000
FONT12 KNHC 020857
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022022               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    

Tropical Storm Bonnie Graphics


Tropical Storm Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:57:56 GMT

Tropical Storm Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:23:38 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Colin (AT3/AL032022)

...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...
 As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 2
 the center of Colin was located near 33.2, -79.5
 with movement NE at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Colin Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 020853
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River,
South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was 
located just inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North, 
longitude 79.5 West.  Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8 
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue 
through Sunday.  A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase 
in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move 
northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North 
Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western 
Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days.  Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic on
Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to
the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.  An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches, is expected.  This rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Tropical Storm Colin Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022  

996 
WTNT23 KNHC 020851
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH SANTEE
RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  79.5W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  79.5W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  79.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.2N  79.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 


Tropical Storm Colin Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 020854
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just 
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland 
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening.  Deep 
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and 
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 
hours.  In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had 
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina.  As a 
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed 
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the 
northeast of Charleston.
 
Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt.  A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours.  The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.
 
Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue 
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear 
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours.  As a result, strengthening 
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared 
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, 
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast 
of the center.  Colin is likely to dissipate over the western 
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.
 
2.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 33.2N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 48H  04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Tropical Storm Colin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022


000
FONT13 KNHC 020853
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032022               
0900 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  1   8( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  2   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  2  10(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  2  13(15)  18(33)   3(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  8   7(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  6  27(33)   3(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  6  29(35)   8(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  7  33(40)   5(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)   X(45)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SURF CITY NC   34 27  24(51)   2(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
SURF CITY NC   50  1   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34 28  18(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
WILMINGTON NC  50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34 49  10(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
FLORENCE SC    34 10   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34 55   2(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
LITTLE RIVER   50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34 58   1(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 17   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Tropical Storm Colin Graphics


Tropical Storm Colin 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 08:55:12 GMT

Tropical Storm Colin 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:30:23 GMT

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Issued at  529 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022



Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at  724 AM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022